Ranking Member Merkley Statement on CBO Baseline

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Ranking Member of the Senate Budget Committee, issued the below statement following the annual release of the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036.

“Today’s economic outlook report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office could not be more clear: Trump and Republicans spent the past year making it hard for working families to get ahead while adding trillions of dollars to our national debt. We are already seeing the ramifications of the Big, Ugly Betrayal law where millions of Americans will be forced off of their health care, millions of children will go hungry, and our deficit will explode – all to fund tax giveaways for the wealthiest Americans. In addition, Trump’s chaotic tariff policy is driving up costs and leaving hardworking Americans worse off.

“Over 10 years, the Republican Big, Ugly Betrayal bill alone will add $4.7 trillion to the federal debt, increasing our debt to 118% of GDP. This is an overwhelming amount of debt that Republicans – with the passage of a single bill – are foisting onto the shoulders of the next generation. It is reckless and irresponsible.

“As we continue to hear from working families across the country, they have made it clear that we must bring down prices and tackle the cost-of-living crisis now. But at every turn, Trump’s chaotic tariffs are increasing the cost of everyday products that families rely on and hurting our economic stability. Republicans continue to ignore the pleas of hardworking families while rewarding their billionaire donors with tax breaks.

“This families lose, billionaires win agenda has to end. Republicans cannot continue to make working Americans sicker and poorer while giving handouts to billionaires. It’s past time we build an economy where families thrive, and billionaires pay their fair share,” said Ranking Member Merkley.

Key takeaways from CBO’s Budget and Economic Outlook report include:

The Big, Ugly Betrayal bill will increase the federal debt by $4.7 trillion by 2035. The bill is responsible for more than half of the growth in the debt-to-GDP ratio between 2025 and 2034.
Revenues are projected to remain insufficient to pay for current spending, with revenues projected to average 17.7 percent of GDP over the next decade and spending 23.8 percent of GDP. Deficits average 6.1 percent of GDP.
New tariffs imposed by Trump raise taxes by $2.4 trillion over 10 years, increasing inflation and reducing the size of the economy. In previous analysis, CBO found that only 5 percent of the tariffs are paid by foreign countries; the other 95 percent are paid by Americans.
Social Security’s Old Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund is projected to be insolvent in 2032. At that point, insufficient funds would require a 28 percent benefit cut.

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