06.09.26

Merkley Responds to Trustees’ Reports That Big, Ugly Betrayal Law Moves Up Insolvency Dates for Social Security, Medicare

Social Security Is Now Set to Become Insolvent in 2032, Recipients Will See a 22 Percent Cut in Benefits; Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund Will Be Insolvent in 2033, Also Earlier Than Previously Projected

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Today, U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Ranking Member of the Senate Budget Committee, issued the following statement after the Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees released their annual reports showing that Social Security’s Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund’s insolvency date moved up one quarter to late 2032, and Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund’s projected insolvency date moved up in 2033. These changes in insolvency dates are due in part to the passage of the Republican One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) that was enacted in July 2025. If Congress does not act, Social Security benefits would be cut by 22 percent, and Medicare would be forced to decrease recipients’ benefits by 11 percent.

“The Republicans’ dangerous Big, Ugly Betrayal Law savagely guts health care and food assistance programs, and today we see the data that this bill caused the Social Security retirement trust fund to be insolvent sooner—in 2032—just six years from now,” said Ranking Member Jeff Merkley. “Because Republicans were so hellbent on passing a law that gives tax cuts to billionaires and skyrockets our national debt by trillions of dollars, seniors and people with disabilities could pay the price with less access to care and benefit cuts to the tune of 22 percent. This is just more of the Republicans’ families lose, billionaires win agenda and the American people won’t stand for it.”

The report also details several policy initiatives set forth by the Trump Administration, such as the brutal restrictions on immigration, that have played a role in the Social Security and Medicare trust funds going insolvent sooner. As stated in federal law, many immigrants pay into Social Security but are ineligible to receive benefits.

Specifically, the report shows:

  • Social Security’s 75-year shortfall, as a share of taxable payroll, increased by 16 percent from last year. OBBBA was responsible for more than a quarter of that change, while immigration factors were responsible for more than one-third.
  • If Congress were to authorize borrowing between Social Security’s two trust funds, the combined program would be insolvent by 2034.
  • Medicare’s 75-year shortfall, as a share of taxable payroll, increased by 33 percent from last year’s report.
  • Medicare Part D spending is higher than projected in last year’s report due to spending on expensive drugs, like GLP-1 medicines.

A summary of the 2026 Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees’ reports is HERE.

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